The consequences of global warming transcend the harmful effects on the environment and point against the stability of political systems and human security. “Climate change will cause the profound impoverishment of many areas and encourage the emergence of failed states and authoritarian regimes,” says Antonio Marquina, co-author and editor of Global Warming and Climate Change , which he will present tomorrow at Casa Asia-Madrid, together with the director of the CNI, Félix Sanz Roldán, and the Secretary General of Defense Policy, Luis Cuesta.
Conflicts over water and food shortages and migratory flows derived from environmental problems will affect the political systems in the medium term, putting the time limit in 2050. Recent Study Shows Climate Change will effect Biological System of Living Being will be countries, especially in Asia and the Middle East, that strengthen the systems authoritarian to survive.
Others, the poorest, will not be able to face the disasters derived from climate change and will become failed states. “The impoverishment of certain areas and the costs of adaptation are factors that have not been taken into account even in models for the predictions of the economic growth of zones and countries,” says Marquina.
“If you join the desire of developing countries to continue growing with the political vision that this growth is successful despite the environmental deterioration, governments will try to control any obstacle to maintain that growth rate”, adds Rosa de Vidania, director of the Department of Environment of the Center for Energy, Environmental and Technological Research, which also participates tomorrow in the presentation of the book.
No need to make predictions, there are unquestionable realities that evidence the effects of global warming: “You can no longer deny facts such as the reduction of water in the river basin or changes in seasonality in rainfall with its consequences for agriculture “, continues Marquina.
Therefore, together with the policies aimed at reducing the emission of greenhouse gases, the Professor of Security and Cooperation at the Complutense University of Madrid underlines the importance of developing adaptation policies: “We must design, for example, programs for the treatment and collection of water or for the preparation of new crops before the alteration of the periods of rains “.
Far from being alarmist, Global Warming and Climate Change – a book resulting from the research developed by the network of European-Asian universities (ASEM) – proposes a vision of possible scenarios based on the current environmental situation and its perspectives of evolution. In the Mediterranean, for example, food production is practically on the edge, especially in North Africa.
“In these countries, a good part of the food consumed is already imported,” explains the book’s publisher, and the situation will worsen if the effects of climate change worsen and adequate adaptation policies are not applied. the European Union, are practically non-existent.
Natural disasters will make the situation worse. The rise in sea level, which the most optimistic scientific opinions put at 0.5 meters in this century, will flood the Nile delta and vast areas of Southeast Asia, which until now has not suffered from lack of rain and has not seen affected its agricultural production.
But in order for policies to adapt to future scenarios that will result from climate change to be feasible, taking measures to reduce emissions of gases into the atmosphere, which failed at the Copenhagen Summit, remains urgent. According to Marquina, “if in 2020 it is not possible to stop the increase in temperatures and it rises by more than two degrees, the adaptation policies will be unviable because of their cost”.